Overview
It's a continuation for the previous one but there is some notes from the previous one from the prof if it needs to be adjusted
1- You have structured the DCF analysis using all key components—historical FCFs, forecasted FCFs, WACC calculation, terminal value, and NPV computation. The effort to source data from StockAnalysis and apply standard valuation formulas is appreciated. However, several critical issues limit the analytical reliability of your valuation: The growth rate assumption of 103.2% annually over six years is wildly unrealistic and unsustainable for a mature company like Emaar. Exponential growth of this magnitude leads to an implausible terminal value of over AED 24 trillion, which significantly distorts the NPV outcome. There is no justification provided for this growth rate beyond referencing historical FCF performance, despite the fact that those increases likely reflect post-pandemic rebounds rather than long-term trends. There is no mention of sensitivity analysis or risk adjustment, which is crucial when working with high level assumptions.
2-Your qualitative overview of Emaar Properties is reasonably articulated. You highlight the company’s diversified portfolio (real estate, retail, hospitality), iconic developments (Burj Khalifa, Dubai Mall), and alignment with UAE’s macroeconomic trends. The recommendation is logically connected to the company’s strength in recurring revenues and its strategic developments. However, there are areas for development: You acknowledge the aggressiveness of the growth rate, but rather than tempering your conclusion, you still issue an overly confident "strong buy" without factoring in downside risks or market volatility. The analysis could have been strengthened by exploring risks such as oversupply in real estate, interest rate fluctuations, or geopolitical uncertainty in the region. While there is a mention of brand strength and international presence, these could be linked more directly to competitive advantage and cash flow durability.