Overview
In this exercise, your task is to forecast the adoption process for an innovation.
- Identify a category defining emerging technology that is of interest to you. Describe the product/service/solution of interest, for which your task is to predict the adoption process going forward. Pick a category which is really new, and not many products, if any, are on the market.
- To do so, start by reviewing the class materials and the note from the course pack on forecasting the adoption of a new product.
- Apply the Bass model to forecast the adoption process:
- Estimate market size
- Identify analogous innovations
- Use these to generate estimates for model coefficients
- Use the Bass model to generate the adoption forecasts. You may use the spreadsheet discussed in class to do so.
- Report expected unit sales in time period 1, 5 and 10
- Prepare a report that provides a detailed response to the points listed above.
- Submit your report here prior to the deadline.