Overview
The ‘Liverpool Garden Centre’ is interested in forecasting the sales of garden spades for the coming year. Based on the quarterly sales figures for the previous two years, the garden centre expects to sell around 405 spades in the coming year. The sales data exhibits a seasonal sales pattern. Table 1 below gives the last two years of sales data (Year 1 and Year 2).
| Spades Sold | ||
| Season | Year 1 | Year 2 |
| Autumn | 45 | 43 |
| Winter | 30 | 35 |
| Spring | 225 | 216 |
| Summer | 80 | 95 |
Table 1: Sales data for year 1 and year 2
(a) How much can the garden centre expect to sell during each quarter of next year (Year 3) accounting for seasonality? Your forecast must make use of seasonal indices. All workings must be shown in full. (NOTE: Please round your calculations to three decimal places).