Part 1: Prepare
Read this scenario:
You're on the game show "Let's Make A Deal" looking at 3 doors. Behind one is a brand-new car. Behind the others are goats! You get to choose one door: if it's the car, you win! You choose Door #1. But before he unveils its contents, Monty opens Door #2 and reveals a goat. You may have picked the right door! Monty asks if you'd like to make a deal. If you want, you can switch to Door #3. What would switching do: improve your odds, worsen your odds, or leave them the same? Answer this question on a piece of paper BEFORE viewing the following video.
Watch the video:
Read the explanation:
When you choose Door #1, your odds of winning are clearly 1/3. Therefore, the odds that the prize is behind Door #2 or Door #3 is 2/3. When Monty reveals that there is nothing behind Door #2, it doesn't change the original probabilities. There is still a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door two or three. (Knowing the contents of door two doesn't change the odds once you've started playing.) Therefore, door three now has a 2/3 odds of winning.
Part 2: First Post
Answer each question:
1) Before you watched the video, did you think you should stay or switch. (4 points)
2) After you watched the video, did you change your mind? Explain your reasoning. (4 points)