Overview
You will use the attached spreadsheet to complete two assessments. In the spreadsheet you will see that I have created two copies of a "correlation matrix" of the 8 most popular broad factors that are shaping Iranian foreign policy today.
In Step 3a you will ask yourselves the question: are each of these factors related to the others? To do this in rigorous fashion you will use the correlation matrix to examine each bivariate relationship - obviously just in a gut sense way, not a quantitative one. This step is super useful when you have - as we have in this case - a ton of potentially interesting variables at work. REalizing that some of them are highly correlated can help you decide what things to keep, ditch, combine, etc.
In Step 3b you will then ask yourselves the question: which of these factors are the most important? To do this you will use a second copy of the correlation matrix, this time simply indicating which of the two factors in each comparison you think is the most powerful. Again, when you have a bunch of stuff flying around taking this structured approach can really help.
Finally, once you are done with the spreadsheet, answer these questions in a word document.
1. Which factors on the board are most highly correlated, and what insights does that suggest both for explaining Iranian foreign policy but also from the international perspective of creating policy to deal with Iran?
2. Which 2 or 3 factors on the board do you think are most important based on your assessment? Again, what does that suggest re efforts to understand Iranian behavior moving forward?
3. What do the key factors you've identified suggest to you about the evolution (or lack thereof) of Iran's nuclear weapons program? What is going to determine whether that happens? Is it something the US and international community have much influence over, or not?
This is another answer:Through the double skimming process through the "gut filter", oddly, I could line up them in a pretty decent manner. American Foreign Policy (14pts)Regional Threat and Balance of Power (12pts)International Pressure (10pts)Islamism & Identity Politics (8pts)Domestic Politics/Regime Type (6pts)Iranian Technology Development (4pts)Iranian Nationalism (2pts)Domestic Economy (0pts)Even though my first picked factors such as threat perception (observing fall of the anti-US regime) and soft power failed to survive, I am happy to see this result and can't wait to see if my mates have a similar outcome. On Questions: 1+2) Which factors on the board are most highly correlated, and what insights does that suggest both for explaining Iranian foreign policy but also from the international perspective of creating policy to deal with Iran? Which 2 or 3 factors on the board do you think are most important based on your assessment? Again, what does that suggest regarding efforts to understand Iranian behavior moving forward?American foreign policy and regional power balance. This suggests that Iranian foreign policy would be affected swayed by external force rather than an internal force. So, addressing Iranian foreign policy requires consistent outside engagement from the US, regional and international allies. ("International Pressure" also ranked 3rd place) And It should be seen as difficult to expect democratization to be achieved internally by voluntary change.3) what do the key factors you've identified suggest to you about the evolution (or lack thereof) of Iran's nuclear weapons program? What is going to determine whether that happens? Is it something the US and the international community have much influence over, or not?From the result, it's technology did not matter as I expected at the previous brainstorming stage. Assuming that the development of Nuke is a part of the foreign policy of Iran, its progress (sometimes backward) would have been also affected by foreign factors. In a way, this means that a lack of technology can be compensated by outsourcing whenever external force is benign with Iranian favor. And yes, the US and international community have more works to do with Iranian Nuke. _//