Overview
Today was the final day for candidates in California to file to run for re-election. Candidates need to have submitted all of their required paperwork by 5pm. It was noted on social media around 5:30pm that Congressman Scott Peters was not showing on the system updates as having completed his form for re-election.
At 6:30pm Scott Peters shocked the political world in San Diego when he announced that he had intentionally NOT filed for re-election. It was widely assumed he would easily win another term in Congress. There were no credible candidates running against him and no viable alternatives preparing for a congressional race in the 52nd district.
Under California election law, when an incumbent fails to file for re-election it extends the filing deadline for five days. But this will be an incredibly tight campaign timeline. We are in March and early voting for the June Primary begins the second week of May. That only leaves about one month until voters start casting ballots.
There is a significant advantage in announcing plans to run as soon as possible. The first candidates out of the gate are best positioned to secure initial donors, key endorsements and tremendous earned media. And given the incredibly compressed timeline, key organizations and individuals will be looking to support a strong candidate quickly. Bottom line—time is of the essence for credible candidates.
At 6:30PM the San Diego Union Tribune posted an initial online story about the shocking development. There is immediate speculation that the candidates below will consider an entry into the Congressional race:
Councilmember Chris Cate (Republican)
Mayor Todd Gloria (Democrat)
Former Mayor Kevin Faulconer (Republican)
Senator Toni Atkins (Democrat)
Assemblymember Chris Ward (Democrat)
City Attorney Mara Elliott (Democrat)
Former Councilmember Mark Kersey (Independent)
District Attorney Summer Stephen (Independent)
The story also mentions that County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, who would undoubtedly have been the strongest candidate, has announced he will not be a candidate because he doesn’t want to move to DC and give up his job as a Professor. Apparently, he loves his students that much:)
It is clear, San Diego politics has been thrown into a state of chaos with major implications on who decides to jump into this campaign with a significant advantage for who can announce first and hit the ground running.
Your Assignment:
You are the senior political consultant for one of the candidates listed above (you need to pick one).
It is currently 7 pm. The candidate and their “kitchen cabinet” of key advisors will be meeting at 9 pm tonight. You are tasked with preparing a presentation assessing the viability of a congressional campaign. You will present to the group the following items:
- Assessment of the district (voter registration stats, demographics, major cities and communities, previous top of the ticket election results for the district). This will help you inform the group of the nature of the district.
- Assessment of the strength of your candidate including how much of their current district (if an elected official) overlaps with this district, assessment of their donor base (looking up past campaign finance records). (For district overlap, it might help to pull up a map and compare districts visually)
- Assessment of the weakness of your candidate including their biggest vulnerabilities and how they might be overcome.
- What are the prospects your candidate could obtain the endorsement of major political organizations (labor, business, political parties, environmental groups, single issue advocacy groups, etc)
- What are the top three issues likely to be in this election and how does your candidate fare on those issues?
- A quick assessment of which two candidates above pose the greatest threat to your candidate.
- Initial take on a slogan, message and strategy
- Your honest assessment on whether the person should or should not enter the campaign including the impact a risky congressional race could have on their current office (you can’t seek two offices on the same ballot). Share your assessment on their viability to be a congressional candidate on such short notice
After your presentation, the group will discuss and tonight the candidate will make a decision. Should they decide to run, you should be ready to stay up all night preparing for a morning announcement.
But for now, your only task is preparing the assessment to be ready in time for the 10:00pm meeting. Your assignment is DUE NO LATER THAN 9:10pm via the Turn It In link.
Political Environment:
The district was once reliably Republican but changing demographics and the positions of Scott Peters made it a safe seat for him. He was a “blue dog” moderate Democrat who routinely ran with significant support from the business community and more Republican identified groups like the US Chamber of Commerce.
Please note:
This assignment is the type of real-world work you would encounter if you enter the political/government environment. It draws directly from the course work and requires you to process a large amount of information, make conclusions, and produce a product. It is a challenging assignment, but doable. Please do not spend your time complaining about the assignment—get to work!
This final exam is open source. But you must cite your work if not your original thought. And you must do your own work! You can use any media, websites, election results, etc, but the work product must be your own completed without assistance from others.
All assignments will be graded on both substance and style.