use excel
1. Output from your completed calculations:
Modify the parameters in the Parameters tab of the template to set your reference case (starting) parameter values to:
| Parameter | Value |
| Amax | 0.95 |
| T (years) | 25 |
| Ri | 2 |
| Rf | 0.2 |
Complete the calculations in the Projections tab of the template. Plot “Vehicle Miles Traveled over time” (including total VMT, and VMT broken down into HAV and non-HAV components) and “Fatalities with and without HAV introduction over time” (one line for the no-policy option and one for the HAVs-allowed policy using the default parameter values provided with the template). Using your completed calculations, make a third plot that shows cumulative lives saved over time if HAVs are allowed on the roads (in our model world) starting in 2025. Paste these three plots into your writeup along with a sentence describing the meaning of the results illustrated in each one.
2. A simple parameter sensitivity test:
The model includes several deeply uncertain parameters, in particular, Amax and T, which characterize technology diffusion, as well as Ri and Rf, which characterize technology improvement. Imagine you are a technology pessimist relative to the policy analyst that developed the model who believes that: a) citizens will not adopt HAVs as readily as the baseline model presumes, and b) mature HAV technology will not offer such substantial safety improvements. Revise at least two of these uncertain parameters to reflect what a more “correct” pessimistic value might be. First, list the change(s) you chose to make by adding a column to the table above. Then paste and compare the plot of “Fatalities with and without HAV introduction over time” with the baseline model parameterization and your new parameterization. Describe in 150 words or less what you observe as the differences and why.
3. A reflection on the utilitarian framework used:
In lecture we talked about the results from an experimental study(Bonnefon, 2016) that explored how subjects’ support for utilitarian algorithms in HAVs varied depending on whether they thought that they or their families would be the one whose lives were in the hands of the algorithm. The RAND study also discusses some of the shortcomings of considering the problem of HAV regulation from the purely utilitarian framework reflected in their quantitative model. Briefly synthesize these two points, how they are related to each other and the implications for the validity of the results produced by the MAVS model. How might the results differ if MAVS were revised to account for these behavioral elements? Conclude with some reflections based on recent news and policy developments related to HAVs. Cite your sources, and keep your write up for this question to 400 words or less.