Overview
Write a paper about residential polarization focused on a US county or neighborhood of New York City using data from Census Reporter and (if NYC) The City. Ultimately, your paper should discuss how this geographic unit votes now and how you predict it will vote going forward. This paper should draw upon the Hetherington and Weiler book, but have a thesis specific to your selected county or neighborhood. Cite Stimson, McCarty, and Bishop.
In writing your paper, please consider:
What are some demographic features of the county or neighborhood? Drawing upon Hetherington and Weiler, how/why are these politically relevant?
oMake sure to discuss the demographic and social characteristics of the district that you think are most important for understanding it politically.
oYou should use Census Reporter to find this information. https://censusreporter.org/ for counties and or Wikipedia (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_West_Side) for neighborhoods.
oPlease make sure that you are looking at the county in the correct state and/or neighborhood in the correct borough (e.g., many states have a Franklin County, there is a Chelsea in both Manhattan and Staten Island).
What are the national political leanings of the county/neighborhood? How did this county vote in 2024 compared with 2020, 2016, and 2012? For neighborhoods, you only need to look at the 2020 vs. 2024 comparison, but should consider if the neighborhood had a larger or smaller swing than NYC and the borough in which it is located as a whole. Why do you think this geographic unit is becoming more Democratic or Republican or remaining about the same? Cite Stimson, McCarty, and Bishop.
oThis data is available from Wikipedia for counties (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bronx).
oThis data is available from The City for neighborhoods: https://projects.thecity.nyc/trump-shift-new-york-change-election-vote/.
§In some cases (e.g., Upper West Side) the neighborhood is divided into multiple smaller neighborhoods, so you will want to consider differences in geography from different sources. In some cases, you might just want to note this so the reader will know this isn’t quite an apples-to-apples comparison.
§If you write about a neighborhood, please refrain from writing about the mayoral election in 2025 unless you can connect it to national politics. (It is a bit more complicated because there wasn’t a clear Democrat vs. Republican.)
How do you expect this county to vote in the 2026 midterms and in the 2028 presidential election?
oIt is still very early, but I would like you make your best prediction based upon the data you have as of now. You do not have to research specific candidate for the midterms or predict who the nominees will be in 2028.
Note: This resource from Jack Pitney at Claremont McKenna is helpful for paper writing (some tips may apply more than others): https://www1.cmc.edu/pages/faculty/JPitney/writing.html.